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Monthly Review: April


  • We estimate that the US growth rate accelerated during Q1 2013, to 2.5% from 0.4% (quarterly annualized). For the whole of 2013, the annual rate of growth of real GDP is projected to be similar to that of 2012 (2.2%). The risks to our estimates are on the upside mainly due to the positive impact of the (expected) further decline in the price of oil and raw materials.
  • We estimate that the Eurozone growth rate accelerated during Q1 2013, and according to our estimates, real GDP contracted marginally by 0.1% from -0.6% (quarterly rate). For the whole of 2013, the annual rate of contraction is projected to be similar to 2012 (-0.5%). Due to persistent political uncertainty, risks to our forecasts are on the downside.
  • The combination of the reorientation of China's economy, the increase of supply and the relatively strong dollar is causing pressure on the price of oil and other raw materials. We estimate that these pressures are of a long-term nature, resulting in the improvement of the growth/inflation outlook globally.
  • On the European front, the positive momentum that began in the summer of 2012 is being maintained. As a result, European values at current levels ​​understate the (admittedly reduced) Eurozone cohesion risks. Trends towards relaxation of austerity policies, although beginning to be discounted, are difficult to assess given the German election campaign.
  • Besides our clearly negative stance for oil and other commodities in general, the overall picture for global markets remains neutral. We underline the positive technical picture for US stocks and German bonds as well as the negative one for emerging market equities.