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February Economic Indicators Bulletin

  • The Bank of Albania (BoA) decided on February 27th to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.75% after the last cut in January of 25bps. The BoA estimates that its current monetary policy is sufficient to achieve the medium-term inflation target, as well as to stimulate domestic economic activity and demand.
  • In its Winter Forecasts, the European Union estimates that Bulgaria’s economy will recover in 2013, with an annual growth rate of 1.4% and 2.0% in 2014 due to increased domestic demand, while exports will continue to negatively contribute to real GDP. Additionally, the fiscal sector is expected to remain strong and stable.
  • In its Winter Forecasts, the European Union estimates that Cyprus’ economy will contract further in 2013, by 3.5% YoY due to shrinking domestic demand and investment activities. Additionally, the fiscal sector is expected to run an excessive deficit in the next two years.
  • In its Winter Forecasts, the European Union estimates that Romania’s economy will gradually recover in 2013, with an annual growth rate of 1.6% and 2.5% in 2014, due to domestic demand, while net exports are expected to negatively contribute to real GDP. The prices of food and energy are expected to increase inflation, while fiscal consolidation will continue to increase revenues.
  • In its Winter Forecasts, the European Union estimates that Serbia’s economy will grow by 1.7% YoY and 2.0% YoY in 2013 and 2014 respectively due to an improvement in exports, while domestic demand will remain weak due to ongoing fiscal austerity measures. Inflation is expected to remain high in the medium term due to administer prices and indirect taxation.