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Economic Indicators Bulletin in Southeastern Europe - April 2014

  • On April 30th, the Bank of Albania (BoA), decided to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, aiming to further strengthen aggregate demand and economic activity.

  • Bulgaria’s general government deficit in 2013, according to Eurostat, amounted to 1.5% of GDP from 0.8% in 2012 and public debt was 18.9% from 18.4% for the same years.

  • On April 25th, the international rating agency Fitch revised upwards Cyprus’ long term sovereign rating to B- from CCC and revised the outlook to stable from negative. The same day, the international rating agency Standard and Poor’s revised upwards the country’s long term sovereign rating to B from B-, affirmed its short-term rating to B and revised the outlook to positive from stable. According to Fitch, the progress of the reforms under the Memorandum of Understanding improves the country’s credibility, its fiscal targets have been significantly exceeded in 2013 and the economy has proven more resilient than expected. Accordingly, S&P notes that the country has met all the conditions of the economic adjustment program, which signals the moderation of risk for the full and timely payment of its debt service, while in 2014 Cyprus is expected to outperform its budget targets.

  • On April 25th, the international rating agency Moody's revised upwards Romania's outlook to stable from negative and affirmed the country’s government bond rating to Baa3. The outlook revision to stable reflects Moody’s view that the significant improvement in the country’s macroeconomic indicators’ in 2013 will continue this year as well. Additionally, this decision reflects the moderation of the risks that are related to future growth and the country’s external financing due to the current recovery of activity in the Euroarea, with which the country has strong ties.

  • Serbia’s real GDP in 2014Q1, according to the flash estimate, slowed down significantly to 0.4% from 2.7% in 2013Q4 and 3.0% in 2013Q1.

Ilias Lekkos

Chief Economist