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Economic Indicators Bulletin in Southeastern Europe - October 2014

  • On October 27th, the Bank of Albania (BoA), decided to keep the key policy rate at 2.5% for the fourth consecutive month, as it is estimated that the current monetary policy provides the conditions necessary to achieve the BoA inflation target.

  • According to Eurostat’s second estimate, Bulgaria’s general government deficit in 2013 was revised downwards to 1.2% of GDP from 1.5% in the first estimate, due to the decline in public spending. Public debt in 2013 was revised downwards to 18.3% of GDP from 18.9% in the first estimate.

  • TOn October 24th, the international rating agency Standard and Poor's revised upwards Cyprus’ long-term foreign and local currency sovereign ratings to B+ from B and with stable outlook. Additionally, on the same day, the international rating agency, Fitch Ratings revised Cyprus’s outlook to positive from stable and affirmed its long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at B-. The significant fiscal consolidation and better than expected economic activity in 2014H1 are the main reasons for the upgrades.

  • On October 17th, the international rating agency Standard and Poor's, affirmed Romania’s long and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign ratings at ΒΒΒ-/A-3 respectively with stable outlook. The positive expectations for economic activity as well as the country’s prudent fiscal policy are the main reasons for the affirmation, while the stable outlook reflects the estimate that the fiscal adjustment will cover any external imbalances risks.

  • According to the flash estimate of the Statistical Office, Serbia’s real GDP in 2014Q3 contracted significantly as expected to 3.6% YoY from a decrease of 1.1% in 2014Q2 and an increase of 3.8% in 2013Q3. The main reasons for this contraction were the May floods, as well as the high base effect from the previous year.


Ilias Lekkos

Chief Economist