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Economic Indicators Bulletin in Southeastern Europe - September 2014

  • The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), in its latest Regional Economic Prospects Report, kept Albania’s real GDP growth estimate unchanged from its May Report at 1.7% YoY for 2014. The EBRD notes that the country’s prospects have improved in recent months due to the government’s progress in repaying its arrears.

  • The EBRD, in its latest Regional Economic Prospects Report, revised downwards its estimate for Bulgaria’s real GDP growth for 2014 to 1.5% YoY from 1.9% in its May Report, due to the ongoing political uncertainty and the recent turmoil in the banking sector.

  • The EBRD included Cyprus for the first time in its latest Regional Economic Prospects Report following the new credit line from the Bank for the financing of small and medium sized companies. The EBRD estimates that real GDP will contract by 3.5% YoY in 2014, observing that the recent resurgence in confidence is having a positive impact on economic activity. The main challenge the country faces is in dealing with non-performing loans.

  • The EBRD, in its latest Regional Economic Prospects Report kept Romania’s real GDP growth estimate unchanged from its May Report at 2.6% YoY for 2014.

  • The EBRD, in its latest Regional Economic Prospects Report, revised Serbia’s real GDP estimate significantly downwards to a contraction of -0.5% YoY in 2014 from one of growth of 1.0% in its May Report, due to the flood related damage in May that affected vital sectors of the economy such as energy and agriculture.

Ilias Lekkos

Chief Economist