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Economic Indicators Bulletin for SEE - March 2015

At the conclusion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission to Albania, the IMF estimates that, this year, real GDP will increase by an average of 3.0% YoY as economic activity is not expected to be significantly adversely affected by the recent floods.

In its Article IV Mission in Bulgaria, the IMF notes that there are several challenges affecting economic growth prospects. Specifically, according to the IMF, it is essential for banking supervision to improve in order for confidence in the domestic financial system to be restored. Additionally, attention must be paid to fiscal finances.

The international rating agency S&P revised upwards Cyprus’ Outlook to Positive from Stable and affirmed the long- and short-term sovereign rating in local and foreign currency at B+/B respectively. According to S&P, fiscal consolidation has improved more than expected and thus positively contributed to the decline in public debt (as % of GDP) in 2014. However, the economic recovery remains fragile. The Positive Outlook signals a possible rating upgrade in the next year should fiscal consolidation continue and the financial sector stabilize.

In its Article IV Mission in Romania, the IMF notes the persistent negative output gap of the economy, while it estimates that there is still space for further easing of the current monetary policy.

In Serbia, public debt increased to 71.9% of GDP in February from 70.9% in 2014. 



        

Ilias Lekkos

Group Chief Economist

                                                                                                                   

Dimitria Rotsika

Economist