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Economic Indicators Bulletin for SEE - April 2015

  • The international rating agency S&P affirmed on April 10th Albania’s long- and short-term sovereign rating in local and foreign currency at B/B respectively with a Stable Outlook. According to S&P, the government is expected to reduce the fiscal deficit during 2015-16, while the Economic Programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to facilitate necessary reforms, thus servicing the public debt.
  • The international rating agency Fitch affirmed on April 24th Cypru's sovereign rating at B- with a Positive Outlook. According to Fitch, fiscal consolidation has improved more than expected and thus positively contributed to the decline in public debt (as a % of GDP). However, the economic recovery remains fragile.
  • The international rating agency S&P affirmed on April 10th Romania’s long- and short-term sovereign rating in local and foreign currency at BBB-/A-3 respectively with a Stable Outlook. According to S&P, economic activity is expected to average 3.0% in 2015-16 with domestic demand predicted to be the key driver. Additionally, the stable economic conditions in the country are expected to counterbalance the fiscal consolidation.
  • The international rating agency S&P downgraded on April 10th Ukraine’s long-term sovereign rating in foreign currency to CC from CCC- with a Negative Outlook. According to S&P, the government’s intention to restructure foreign currency commercial debt and similar actions meet the criteria for a default.
  • The international rating agency Moody’s upgraded on April 7th Egypt’s sovereign rating to B3 from Caa1 with a Stable Outlook. According to Moody’s, the current macroeconomic conditions in the country have improved, the external sector imbalances have moderated and the government’s commitment to further economic and fiscal reforms are credit positive.

        

Ilias Lekkos

Group Chief Economist

                                                                                                                   

Dimitria Rotsika

Economist